Preparing for El Niño

The currents and trade winds of the Pacific Ocean usually follow a predictable pattern, but every three to seven years, this system is thrown out of whack. For reasons that are still unclear, the surface waters of the Eastern Pacific sometimes become especially warm; trade winds may flow from west to east, bringing even more warm water, and kicking off a feedback loop that can supercharge typhoons, trigger massive flooding in some areas, and cause drought in others. This is El Niño, and by some accounts, the 2015-2016 El Niño could be the most dramatic in recorded history.

In 2015 there were a record 25 category 4 or 5 typhoons in the Pacific, seven more than the previous record of 18. More seriously, the UN has predicted that El Niño threatens the food security of 14 million people, mostly in African countries. Perhaps the only bright spot is that climate science now allows us to predict El Niños, allowing us time to mitigate their damage.


Translation

太平洋的洋流與信風，通常照著可預測的模式流動，但系統每三到七年失去正常。東太平洋的水域表面，時而變得特別暖，原因迄今仍不明；信風可能由西往東流動，帶來更暖的水，啟動能讓颱風更為強大的回饋圈，在某些地方造成超大洪水，某些地方卻是旱災。這就是聖嬰現象，而且根據某些說法，2015 年至 2016 間的聖嬰現象，是有史以來最為顯著的。

2015 年，太平洋上的颱風，等級 4 或 5 的，紀錄上有 25 個，比前一年的 18 個多出 7 個。益加嚴重的是，聯合國預料，聖嬰現象威脅一千四百萬主要是非洲國家人民的食糧保障。唯一的光明之處，大抵是氣候科學目前已經能讓我們預測聖嬰現象，讓我們有時間來減輕災害。